The Year for Victory Gardens

 

The Year for Victory Gardens Barring some major changes in direction, 2022 is the year for town people to plant victory gardens, and this is the year for operators of small farms to produce all they can.  Why is that?  Farm income has been down for years because the prices of food commodities (at least in the United States) have been different. But 2022 is looking different for many reasons.  The year started with rising costs for natural gas, and with that, rising costs and shortages of ammonia fertilizers made using natural gas; consequently, less fertilizer applied will mean decreased food production.  Then, Russia invaded Ukraine, and much of Europe and North America are shutting down trade with Russia.  That has caused three major problems: (1) Efforts to stifle Russian trade have increased oil and natural-gas prices even more (further increasing fertilizer and agriculture operations costs); (2) Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grain and sunflower products, so the boycotts and fighting are constricting those exports, raising food prices all over the world; and (3) Russia and Ukraine are also significant exporters of another key fertilizer—potash—reduced potash will also reduce food production.  But, as the late-night sales pitches say, “There’s more!” Supply chain bottlenecks from the covid-pandemic lockdowns have caused parts shortages and also increased costs.  A widespread outbreak of avian flu is reducing supply of eggs and poultry meat.  There are the usual droughts hitting here and there randomly. Furthermore, there’s never a global warming around when you really need one!  A lot of people talk about several-decade-long spells of minor warming and cooling.  The 1930s were hot and dry, the 1950 to mid-1970s were colder, and then the runup to the 2100s was mostly warmer and dryer.  Now, we may be in some cooling.  Last year’s fall harvests in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay (roughly April–May in their Southern Hemisphere) were down significantly because of cold weather.    Last, but not least, the eruption off the island of Tonga in the Pacific Ocean shot about as much sun-shading sulfur dioxide into the sky as the eruption of Philippine Mount Pinatubo in 1991.  The shading from the Pinatubo shading cooled the global temperature about half a degree Fahrenheit for a couple years.  A half degree doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a third of the global warming from 1880 until now.  During that time, things could be noticeably cooler with snow storms later in the spring (sound familiar?), later spring frosts, and earlier fall frosts. For all those reasons, food supplies could be much thinner than usual for a couple years.  Most likely, it’s time to go forward to the past.  During World War II, individual households tended victory gardens to replace food that was being sent to hungry allies.  Farmers produced all they could.  It’s probably time to do so again.